New report: African countries on track to face 64% GDP hit due to climate crisis

•    New report published on ‘Finance Day’ at COP27 projects the economic harm caused by climate change in 50 of 54 African countries.
•    Median GDP hit of -20% by 2050 and -64% by 2100 under current climate policies.
•    Even if world limits heating to 1.5C countries face average GDP damage of -14% in 2050 and -34% in 2100. Report highlights growing need for Loss and Damage finance.

Wednesday 9th November - A new study published by Christian Aid highlights the devastating economic impact climate change will inflict on the African continent.

With delegates discussing finance issues at COP27 today the new report lays bare the grim economic future some of the poorest countries in the world will face.  

Estimates based on peer-reviewed methodology by Burke et al  show that based on current climate policies, where global temperature rise reaches 2.7C by the end of the century, African countries can expect to suffer an average GDP hit of -20% by 2050 and of -64% by 2100.

Even if countries keep global temperature rise to 1.5C as set out in the Paris Agreement, African countries face an average GDP reduction of -14% by 2050 and -34% by 2100. 

The report’s findings only looked at the impact of temperature rise meaning the added damage from extreme weather events could make the economic outlook for these countries even worse, underlining the need for funding to compensate countries impacted by loss and damage to income, homes, territories and even lives caused by the climate crisis.

Speaking from COP27 in Egypt, Christian Aid Ireland’s Policy and Advocacy Officer Ross Fitzpatrick said:

“This report paints a stark picture of the punishing economic impact that rising global temperatures will have on countries across Africa. This is a deep injustice, especially given the continent is only responsible for less than 4% of historic global emissions. More worrying still is that these are the predicted impacts of temperature rise alone, and adding extreme weather events to the mix could make these economic hits to African countries even worse.”

Mr. Fitzpatrick continued: “It’s high time that wealthy, high emitting countries sat up and took note of the devastating impact that the climate crisis is having on African countries, and developing countries further afield. It’s vital that wealthier countries throw everything behind getting their own emissions down, as well as step up and provide funding to developing countries for the loss and damage that they are experiencing now and will continue to experience into the future as a result of a climate crisis they did least to create.” 

African countries are already suffering a reversal in development gains since Covid-19, with the World Bank showing that half a billion people around the world have been pushed into extreme poverty since the pandemic. 

This is exacerbated by climate impacts such as the drought in the Horn of Africa which has left over 20 million people across Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia struggling to get enough food to eat.

This report highlights how climate change will rob African countries of the vital funds needed to tackle poverty, boost healthcare and build the infrastructure that underpins economic development. 

The country facing the worst projected GDP hit is Sudan, which this year faced one of its worst rainy seasons in living memory.  Heavy rains and flash floods affected more than 258,000 people, in 15 out of 18 provinces.  The Christian Aid study shows that under current climate policies Sudan faces a GDP reduction of -32.4% by 2050 and -84% by 2100. Even in a 1.5C scenario, Sudan can expect a GDP hit of -22.4% by 2050 and -51.6% by 2100.

The report also shows that eight countries face GDP hits of more than 25% by 2050 and 75% by 2100 under current policies. These eight are: Sudan, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, Djibouti, and Nigeria.
ENDS

Notes to editors

The analysis in the report, titled The cost to Africa: drastic economic damage from climate change, was led by Marina Andrijevic, an economist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna.  

Last year, Christian Aid published a similar analysis across a selection of countries that make up vulnerable country negotiating blocs at the UNFCCC; the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). With this year’s summit in Egypt, the charity has focussed on all the African countries where data is available (50 out of 54).

The methodology used here doesn’t factor in adaptation measures so greater investment in adaptation could potentially alleviate some of the damage. The current lack of adaptation support is one of the key issues being discussed at COP27. According to the UN’s Adaptation Gap report, published November 1 2022, international adaptation finance flows to developing countries are 5-10 times below estimated needs and the gap is widening. Estimated annual adaptation needs are $160-340 billion by 2030 and $315-565 billion by 2050.

The countries most affected are also the ones with very low capacities to adapt, as outlined by the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative which ranks country’s vulnerability and adaptative capacity, so it is unreasonable to expect that they will be able to reduce these damages very substantially.

Top 8 worst affected African countries